Journal of Biostatistics and Epidemiology 2016. 2(2):98-103.

Quantitative analysis of most important infectious disease trend by climate change in Iran: Spatial trend analysis using Mann-Kendal
Elham Ahmadnezhad, Zhaleh Abdi, Abolhassan Safdari, Farshid Fayyaz-Jahani, Sheida Malek-Afzali, Soraya Fathollahi

Abstract


Background & Aim: The aim of the study was to define the epidemiological characteristics of most important infectious diseases in Iran in recent decades.
Methods & Materials:
This was a situation trend analysis of infectious diseases (vector and water borne disease, and food borne diseases) in recent decades based on data availability. Three significance levels were used for Mann-Kendall test (90%, 95% and 99%).
Results: The morbidities of most studied diseases had decreased in whole of the country. Unlike other diseases, coetaneous leishmaniasis had not followed the deacreasing trend. In terms of location, Khorasan-e-Shomali was followed the increasing pattern for in four out of six disaeses [malaria, leishmaniasis (coetaneous and visceral), and typhoid].
Conclusion:
In conclusion, there is a significant decreasing trend of most important infectious diseases in Iran. Nevertheless, climate change is already happening and would influence the diseases trends. Hence, developing and implementing adaptation strate ies should be considered.

Keywords


Climate change; Infectious disease; Mann-Kendall trend tests; Spatial

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