Tehran University of Medical Sciences Journal of Biostatistics and Epidemiology 2383-4196 8 2 2022 07 15 160 169 Fatemeh Sadabadi Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Mohsen Moohebati Cardiovascular Research Center, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran Alireza Heidari-Bakavoli Cardiovascular Research Center, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran Sousan Darroudi Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Shahin Nazarpour Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Mohammad Sadegh Khorrami Mohebbseraj Department of Medical Genetics, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran; Zahra Asadi Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Habibollah Esmaeily Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Health, Management & Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran Hamideh Ghazizadeh Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Elham Barati Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Najmeh malekzadeh Gonabadi Department of Genetic, School of Sciences, Sistan and Baluchestan University, Zahedan, Iran. Sara Samadi Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Maryam Tayefi Clinical Research Unit, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran Zahra Izadi mood Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences, Western University, London, ON, Canada Sahar Heidari- Bakavoli Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Tara Hoori Metabolic syndrome Research center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. Ramin Bahramizadeh Sajjadi Legal Medicine Research Center, Legal Medicine Organization, Mashhad, Iran Gordon Ferns Department of Medical Education, Brighton & Sussex Medical School, Brighton, BN1 9PH, UK Majid Ghayour Mobarhan Metabolic Syndrome Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran AND International UNESCO Center for Health-Related Basic Sciences and Human Nutrition, Department of Nutrition, School of Medicine, Mashhad Hamid Heidarian Miri Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Health, Management & Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran. 2021 08 17 2022 03 16 Introduction Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, and specifically in Iran. Accurate assessments of Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence is very necessary for public health. In current study we aimed to investigate the incidence of CHD and importance of several classical, modifiable and un-modifiable risk factors for CHD among an urban population in eastern Iran after 6 years of follow-up. Methods The population of MASHAD cohort study were followed up for 6 years, every 3 years in two step by phone and who reported symptoms of CVD were asked to attend for a cardiac examination, to estimate the incidence of CHD with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) as well multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association of several baseline characteristics with incidence of CHD event. Evaluation of goodness-of-fit was done using ROC analysis. CHD cases divided into four different classes which include: stable angina, unstable angina pectoris, myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death. Results In the six years' follow-up of Mashhad study, the incidence rate of all CHD event in men and women in 100,000 people-years with 95% confidence intervals were 1920 (810-3030) and 1160 (730-1590), respectively. The areas under ROC curve (AUC), based on multivariate predictors of CHD outcome, was 0.7825. Conclusion Our findings indicated that the incidence rate of coronary heart diseases in MASHAD cohort study increases with age as well as our final model designed, was able to predict approximately 78% of CHD events in Iranian population.   https://jbe.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jbe/article/view/700