Journal of Biostatistics and Epidemiology 2015. 1(3-4):80-85.

Years lost due to disability for typhoid fever related to increased temperature under climate change scenarios and population changing projected burden of diseases
Elham Ahmadnezhad, Zhaleh Abdi, Farshid Fayyaz-Jahani, Mahmod Suolduozi, Soraya Fatholahi

Abstract


Background  & Aim: This study aimed  to estimate  and project  the current  and future disability burden of typhoid fever in Iran associated with climate and population to provide best policies for climate change adaptation.

Methods & Materials: Years lost due to disabilities (YLDs) were measured as burden estimation in this study. The temperature was selected as climate variable. Future temperature rising (projected for 2030 and 2050) used according to Intergovernmental  Panel on Climate  Change reports. Typhoid fever incidence in 2010 applied as the baseline data for YLDs calculation. The previous published regression   models   were   considered   for   YLDs’   future   projections.   Furthermore,   the   future demographic change was included for YLDs calculation.

Results: Compared with the YLDs in 2010, increasing temperature and demographic change may lead to a 5.5-9% increase in the YLDs by 2030 and a 13.7-22% increase by 2050 if other factors remain  constant.  The  highest  YLDs  was  projected  for  >  45  years  old  (56.3%)  in  2050  under temperature rising and population change scenario.

Conclusion:  Climate  change  and  aging  may  impact  on  burden  of  typhoid  fever  in  the  future. Adaptive strategies should be considered to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change.


Keywords


typhoid fever; climate change;years lost due to disability;aging

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