An Integrative Bayesian Model Analysis Of Patient Characteristics And Treatment Variables To Understand Lung Cancer Survival Rates In Kerman Province, Iran
Abstract
Introduction: Lung cancer (LC) is the most common type of cancer and causes of death among males.
This study aims to estimate the survival rate of lung cancer patients by employing the benefits of Bayesian
modeling in determining factors affecting the survival of lung cancer in Kerman province, Iran.
Methods: We conducted a historical cohort study of 195 patients with lung cancer from 2016 to 2018. In
this study, we used linear dependent Dirichlet process (LDDP), and employed some results of the previous
study as informative prior for better estimation.
Results: Of the 195 patients, 160 died. The mean age of patients at the time of diagnosis was 62.43±12.55.
The median survival time of patients was 10.4 months. Men accounted for 75.9% of the total patients. One,
two, and three-year survival rate was 44.5%, 22.9%, and 16.4%, respectively. The multivariable model
results showed that treatments were significant. Other variables had no significant effect.
Conclusion: Our study highlights the importance of prompt diagnosis and appropriate treatment in
improving the survival rate of lung cancer patients. We found that patients who received at least one
usual lung cancer treatment, such as chemotherapy, radiation therapy, or surgery, had higher survival rates
compared to those who did not receive any treatment. While our study has some limitations, such as its
retrospective design, our use of Bayesian modeling techniques allowed us to effectively incorporate prior
information from previous studies to improve estimation accuracy
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6. Hassanipour S, Mokhtari A, Fathalipour M, Salehiniya H. The incidence of lung cancer in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis. World Cancer Research Journal. 2017;4(4):e980.
7. Fitzmaurice C, Dicker D, Pain A, Hamavid H, Moradi-Lakeh M, MacIntyre MF, et al. The global burden of cancer 2013. JAMA oncology. 2015;1(4):505-27.
8. Ozlü T, Bülbül Y. Smoking and lung cancer. Tuberk Toraks. 2005;53(2):200-9.
9. Haraguchi S, Koizumi K, Mikami I, Junichi O, Iijima Y, Ibi T, et al. Clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients associated with a family history of lung cancer. International Journal of Medical Sciences. 2012;9(1):68-73.
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12. Shajari Z. Dosimetry hadron therapy for the treatment of lung cancer: Hakim Sabzevari University; 2017.
13. Biesalski HK, De Mesquita BB, Chesson A, Chytil F, Grimble R, Hermus R, et al. European consensus statement on lung cancer: risk factors and prevention. lung cancer panel. CA: a cancer journal for clinicians. 1998;48(3):167-76.
14. O’Keeffe LM, Taylor G, Huxley RR, Mitchell P, Woodward M, Peters SAE. Smoking as a risk factor for lung cancer in women and men: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ Open. 2018;8(10):e021611.
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16. Naghibzadeh-Tahami A, Marzban M, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Dabiri S, Mohseni S, Abbasi Rayeni R, et al. Is opium use associated with an increased risk of lung cancer? A case-control study. BMC cancer. 2020;20(1):807.
17. Nakhaee N, Divsalar K, Meimandi MS, Dabiri S. Estimating the prevalence of opiates use by unlinked anonymous urine drug testing: a pilot study in Iran. Substance Use and Misuse. 2008;43(4):513-20.
18. CDC. How Is Lung Cancer Diagnosed and Treated? Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 2020 [Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/lung/basic_info/diagnosis_treatment.htm.
19. De Iorio M, Johnson WO, Müller P, Rosner GL. Bayesian nonparametric nonproportional hazards survival modeling. Biometrics. 2009;65(3):762-71.
20. Müller P, Quintana FA. Nonparametric Bayesian data analysis. Statistical Science. 2004;19(1):95-110.
21. Hanson TE, Jara A. Surviving fully Bayesian nonparametric regression models. Bayesian Theory and Applications: Oxford Scholarship Online; 2013. p. 593-615.
22. Quintana FA, Müller P, Jara A, MacEachern SN. The dependent Dirichlet process and related models. Statistical Science. 2022;37(1):24-41.
23. Zahir ST, Mirtalebi M. Survival of patients with lung cancer, Yazd, Iran. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention. 2012;13(9):4387-91.
24. Salehi M, Salehi M, Shahidsales S, Goshayeshi G, Emadzadeh M, Seilanian Toosi M, et al. Epidemiology of lung cancer in northeast of Iran: A 25-year study of 939 patients. Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2020;34(1):17-8.
25. Biswas T, Walker P, Podder T, Rosenman J, Efird J. Important prognostic factors for lung cancer in tobacco predominant Eastern North Carolina: study based on a single cancer registry. Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands). 2014;84(2):116-20.
26. Bahari N, Payandeh M, Tarlan M, Izadi N. Survival of kurdish patients with lung cancer and some related factors. Clinical Cancer Investigation Journal. 2020;9(6):258-63.
27. Lachgar A, Tazi M, Afif M, Er-Raki A, Kebdani T, Benjaafar N. Lung cancer: Incidence and survival in Rabat, Morocco. Revue d'Epidemiologie et de Sante Publique. 2016;64(6):391-5.
28. Berghmans T, Paesmans M, Meert AP, Mascaux C, Lothaire P, Lafitte JJ, et al. Survival improvement in resectable non-small cell lung cancer with (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy: results of a meta-analysis of the literature. Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands). 2005;49(1):13-23.
29. Marra A, Richardsen G, Wagner W, Müller-Tidow C, Koch OM, Hillejan L. Prognostic factors of resected node-positive lung cancer: location, extent of nodal metastases, and multimodal treatment. Thorac Surg Sci. 2011;8(1):Doc01-Doc.
30. Albain KS, Swann RS, Rusch VW, Turrisi AT, 3rd, Shepherd FA, Smith C, et al. Radiotherapy plus chemotherapy with or without surgical resection for stage III non-small-cell lung cancer: a phase III randomised controlled trial. Lancet (London, England). 2009;374(9687):379-86.
31. Gandini S, Botteri E, Iodice S, Boniol M, Lowenfels AB, Maisonneuve P, et al. Tobacco smoking and cancer: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Cancer. 2008;122(1):155-64.
32. Parsons A, Daley A, Begh R, Aveyard P. Influence of smoking cessation after diagnosis of early stage lung cancer on prognosis: systematic review of observational studies with meta-analysis. British Medical Journal. 2010;340(1):b5569.
33. Kumar M, Sonker PK, Saroj A, Jain A, Bhattacharjee A, Saroj RK. Parametric survival analysis using R: Illustration with lung cancer data. Cancer Reports. 2020;3(4):e1210.
34. Tan YK, Wee TC, Koh WP, Wang YT, Eng P, Tan WC, et al. Survival among Chinese women with lung cancer in Singapore: a comparison by stage, histology and smoking status. Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands). 2003;40(3):237-46.
2. Bray F, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Siegel RL, Torre LA, Jemal A. Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians. 2018;68(6):394-424.
3. Emami RS, Aghajani H, Haghazali M, NADALI F, Ramazani F, Dabiri E, et al. The most common cancers in Iranian women. Iranian Journal of Public Health. 2009;38(1):109-12.
4. Mousavi SM, Gouya MM, Ramazani R, Davanlou M, Hajsadeghi N, Seddighi Z. Cancer incidence and mortality in Iran. Annals of oncology. 2009;20(3):556-63.
5. Garcia M, Jemal A, Ward E, Center M, Hao Y, Siegel R, et al. Global cancer facts & figures 2007. Atlanta, GA: American Cancer Society. 2007;1(3):52-7.
6. Hassanipour S, Mokhtari A, Fathalipour M, Salehiniya H. The incidence of lung cancer in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis. World Cancer Research Journal. 2017;4(4):e980.
7. Fitzmaurice C, Dicker D, Pain A, Hamavid H, Moradi-Lakeh M, MacIntyre MF, et al. The global burden of cancer 2013. JAMA oncology. 2015;1(4):505-27.
8. Ozlü T, Bülbül Y. Smoking and lung cancer. Tuberk Toraks. 2005;53(2):200-9.
9. Haraguchi S, Koizumi K, Mikami I, Junichi O, Iijima Y, Ibi T, et al. Clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients associated with a family history of lung cancer. International Journal of Medical Sciences. 2012;9(1):68-73.
10. Macdonald F, Ford C, Casson A. Molecular biology of cancer: Taylor & Francis; 2004.
11. Provencio M, Carcereny E, Rodríguez-Abreu D, López-Castro R, Guirado M, Camps C, et al. Lung cancer in Spain: information from the Thoracic Tumors Registry (TTR study). Translational Lung Cancer Research. 2019;8(4):461.
12. Shajari Z. Dosimetry hadron therapy for the treatment of lung cancer: Hakim Sabzevari University; 2017.
13. Biesalski HK, De Mesquita BB, Chesson A, Chytil F, Grimble R, Hermus R, et al. European consensus statement on lung cancer: risk factors and prevention. lung cancer panel. CA: a cancer journal for clinicians. 1998;48(3):167-76.
14. O’Keeffe LM, Taylor G, Huxley RR, Mitchell P, Woodward M, Peters SAE. Smoking as a risk factor for lung cancer in women and men: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ Open. 2018;8(10):e021611.
15. Sheikh M, Shakeri R, Poustchi H, Pourshams A, Etemadi A, Islami F, et al. Opium use and subsequent incidence of cancer: results from the Golestan Cohort Study. The Lancet Global health. 2020;8(5):e649-e60.
16. Naghibzadeh-Tahami A, Marzban M, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Dabiri S, Mohseni S, Abbasi Rayeni R, et al. Is opium use associated with an increased risk of lung cancer? A case-control study. BMC cancer. 2020;20(1):807.
17. Nakhaee N, Divsalar K, Meimandi MS, Dabiri S. Estimating the prevalence of opiates use by unlinked anonymous urine drug testing: a pilot study in Iran. Substance Use and Misuse. 2008;43(4):513-20.
18. CDC. How Is Lung Cancer Diagnosed and Treated? Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 2020 [Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/lung/basic_info/diagnosis_treatment.htm.
19. De Iorio M, Johnson WO, Müller P, Rosner GL. Bayesian nonparametric nonproportional hazards survival modeling. Biometrics. 2009;65(3):762-71.
20. Müller P, Quintana FA. Nonparametric Bayesian data analysis. Statistical Science. 2004;19(1):95-110.
21. Hanson TE, Jara A. Surviving fully Bayesian nonparametric regression models. Bayesian Theory and Applications: Oxford Scholarship Online; 2013. p. 593-615.
22. Quintana FA, Müller P, Jara A, MacEachern SN. The dependent Dirichlet process and related models. Statistical Science. 2022;37(1):24-41.
23. Zahir ST, Mirtalebi M. Survival of patients with lung cancer, Yazd, Iran. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention. 2012;13(9):4387-91.
24. Salehi M, Salehi M, Shahidsales S, Goshayeshi G, Emadzadeh M, Seilanian Toosi M, et al. Epidemiology of lung cancer in northeast of Iran: A 25-year study of 939 patients. Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2020;34(1):17-8.
25. Biswas T, Walker P, Podder T, Rosenman J, Efird J. Important prognostic factors for lung cancer in tobacco predominant Eastern North Carolina: study based on a single cancer registry. Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands). 2014;84(2):116-20.
26. Bahari N, Payandeh M, Tarlan M, Izadi N. Survival of kurdish patients with lung cancer and some related factors. Clinical Cancer Investigation Journal. 2020;9(6):258-63.
27. Lachgar A, Tazi M, Afif M, Er-Raki A, Kebdani T, Benjaafar N. Lung cancer: Incidence and survival in Rabat, Morocco. Revue d'Epidemiologie et de Sante Publique. 2016;64(6):391-5.
28. Berghmans T, Paesmans M, Meert AP, Mascaux C, Lothaire P, Lafitte JJ, et al. Survival improvement in resectable non-small cell lung cancer with (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy: results of a meta-analysis of the literature. Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands). 2005;49(1):13-23.
29. Marra A, Richardsen G, Wagner W, Müller-Tidow C, Koch OM, Hillejan L. Prognostic factors of resected node-positive lung cancer: location, extent of nodal metastases, and multimodal treatment. Thorac Surg Sci. 2011;8(1):Doc01-Doc.
30. Albain KS, Swann RS, Rusch VW, Turrisi AT, 3rd, Shepherd FA, Smith C, et al. Radiotherapy plus chemotherapy with or without surgical resection for stage III non-small-cell lung cancer: a phase III randomised controlled trial. Lancet (London, England). 2009;374(9687):379-86.
31. Gandini S, Botteri E, Iodice S, Boniol M, Lowenfels AB, Maisonneuve P, et al. Tobacco smoking and cancer: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Cancer. 2008;122(1):155-64.
32. Parsons A, Daley A, Begh R, Aveyard P. Influence of smoking cessation after diagnosis of early stage lung cancer on prognosis: systematic review of observational studies with meta-analysis. British Medical Journal. 2010;340(1):b5569.
33. Kumar M, Sonker PK, Saroj A, Jain A, Bhattacharjee A, Saroj RK. Parametric survival analysis using R: Illustration with lung cancer data. Cancer Reports. 2020;3(4):e1210.
34. Tan YK, Wee TC, Koh WP, Wang YT, Eng P, Tan WC, et al. Survival among Chinese women with lung cancer in Singapore: a comparison by stage, histology and smoking status. Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands). 2003;40(3):237-46.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 8 No 4 (2022) | |
| Section | Articles | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/jbe.v8i4.13357 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Lung cancer; Bayesian; Survival analysis | ||
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How to Cite
1.
Ghasemi J, Samareh Fekri M, Larizadeh MH, Dabiri S, Jahani Y. An Integrative Bayesian Model Analysis Of Patient Characteristics And Treatment Variables To Understand Lung Cancer Survival Rates In Kerman Province, Iran. JBE. 2022;8(4):452-464.
