Years lost due to disability for typhoid fever related to increased temperature under climate change scenarios and population changing projected burden of diseases
,
Abstract
Background & Aim: This study aimed to estimate and project the current and future disability burden of typhoid fever in Iran associated with climate and population to provide best policies for climate change adaptation.
Methods & Materials: Years lost due to disabilities (YLDs) were measured as burden estimation in this study. The temperature was selected as climate variable. Future temperature rising (projected for 2030 and 2050) used according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. Typhoid fever incidence in 2010 applied as the baseline data for YLDs calculation. The previous published regression models were considered for YLDs’ future projections. Furthermore, the future demographic change was included for YLDs calculation.
Results: Compared with the YLDs in 2010, increasing temperature and demographic change may lead to a 5.5-9% increase in the YLDs by 2030 and a 13.7-22% increase by 2050 if other factors remain constant. The highest YLDs was projected for > 45 years old (56.3%) in 2050 under temperature rising and population change scenario.
Conclusion: Climate change and aging may impact on burden of typhoid fever in the future. Adaptive strategies should be considered to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change.
IPCC. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) [Online]. [cited 2013 Jul 31]; Available from: URL: http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/activities.shtml
Core Writing Team, Pachauri R, Reisinger A. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC; 2007. p. 104.
Singh S, Mushtaq U, Holm-Hansen C, Milan D, Cheung A, Watts N. The importance of climate change to health. Lancet 2011; 378(9785): 29-30.
Alexander KA, Carzolio M, Goodin D,Vance E. Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2013; 10(4): 1202-30.
Farag TH, Faruque AS, Wu Y, Das SK,Hossain A, Ahmed S, et al. Housefly population density correlates with shigellosis among children in Mirzapur, Bangladesh: a time series analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2013; 7(6): e2280.
Trærup SM, Ortiz R, Markandya A. The costs of climate change: a study of cholera in Tanzania. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2011; 8(12): 4386-405.
D'Souza RM, Becker NG, Hall G, Moodie KB. Does ambient temperature affect foodborne disease? Epidemiology 2004;15(1): 86-92.
Hasan R, Cooke FJ, Nair S, Harish BN, Wain J. Typhoid and paratyphoid fever. Lancet 2005; 366(9497): 1603-4.
Effa EE, Lassi ZS, Critchley JA, Garner P,Sinclair D, Olliaro PL, et al. Fluoroquinolones for treating typhoid and paratyphoid fever (enteric fever). Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2011; (10): CD004530.
Crump JA, Mintz ED. Global trends in typhoid and paratyphoid Fever. Clin Infect Dis 2010; 50(2): 241-6.
Crump JA, Luby SP, Mintz ED. The global burden of typhoid fever. Bull World Health Organ 2004; 82(5): 346-53.
Murray CJ, Vos T, Lozano R, Naghavi M, Flaxman AD, Michaud C, et al. Disability- adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 2012; 380(9859): 2197-223.
Kosek M, Bern C, Guerrant RL. The global burden of diarrhoeal disease, as estimated from studies published between 1992 and 2000. Bull World Health Organ 2003; 81(3): 197-204.
Koelle K, Rodó X, Pascual M, Yunus M, Mostafa G. Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 2005;436: 696-700.
Acosta CJ, Galindo CM, Kimario J, Senkoro K, Urassa H, Casals C, et al. Cholera outbreak in southern Tanzania: risk factors and patterns of transmission. Emerg Infect Dis 2001; 7(3 Suppl): 583-7.
Masoumi AH, Gouya MM, Nabavi M, Aghili N. Epidemiology of typhoid fever in Iran during last five decades from 1962-2011. Iran J Public Health 2013; 42(1): 33-8.
Buckle GC, Walker CL, Black RE. Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever: Systematic review to estimate global morbidity and mortality for 2010. J Glob Health 2012;2(1): 010401.
Zhang Y, Bi P, Hiller JE. Projected burden of disease for Salmonella infection due to increased temperature in Australian temperate and subtropical regions. Environ Int 2012; 44: 26-30.
Cook J, Sur D, Clemens J, Whittington D. Evaluating investments in typhoid vaccines in two slums in Kolkata, India. J Health Popul Nutr 2009; 27(6): 711-24.
Murray CJ, Acharya AK. Understanding DALYs (disability-adjusted life years). J Health Econ 1997; 16(6): 703-30.
Singh R, Hales S, de Wet N, Raj R,Hearnden M, Weinstein P. The influence of climate variation and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands. Environ Health Perspect 2001; 109(2): 155-9.
World Bank Group. Population estimates and projections [Online]. [cited 2013 Jul]; Available from: URL: http://data.worldbank.org/data- catalog/population-projection-tables
Kiani S, Bayanzadeh M, Tavallaee M, Hogg RS. The Iranian population is graying: are we ready? Arch Iran Med 2010; 13(4): 333-9.
Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, Lim S,Shibuya K, Aboyans V, et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet 2012;380(9859): 2095-128.
Dewan AM, Corner R, Hashizume M, Ongee ET. Typhoid Fever and its association with environmental factors in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area of Bangladesh: a spatial and time-series approach. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2013; 7(1): e1998.
Feasey N, Archer B, Heyderman R, Sooka A, Dennis B, Gordon MA. Typhoid fever and invasive nontyphoid salmonellosis, Malawi and South Africa. Emerg Infect Dis 2010; 16(9): 1448-51.
Sharma PK, Ramakrishnan R, Hutin Y, Manickam P, Gupte MD. Risk factors for typhoid in Darjeeling, West Bengal, India: evidence for practical action. Trop Med Int Health 2009; 14(6): 696-702.
Campbell-Lendrum D, Woodruff R.Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change. Environ Health Perspect 2006; 114(12): 1935-41.
Cheng JJ, Berry P. Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians. Int J Public Health 2013; 58(5): 765-75.
World Health Organization. Comparative quantification of health risks. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization;2004. p. 1543-649.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 1 No 3/4 (2015) | |
| Section | Original Article(s) | |
| Keywords | ||
| typhoid fever climate change years lost due to disability aging | ||
| Rights and permissions | |
|
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
