SIR Model for Estimations of the Coronavirus Epidemic Dynamics in Iran
,
Abstract
Background: The Coronavirus 2019-nCOV (COVID-19) epidemic by SARS-CoV-2 is spreading worldwide, and by March 1, 2020, 67 countries, including Iran, have been affected. Many studies are being conducted at home and abroad to predict the outbreak of the disease so that they can make the necessary medical and health decisions in a timely manner.
Methods: we used the SIR model to identify parameters to calculate epidemic features and some estimates of the new coronavirus. Data on the transmission of the novel coronavirus were extracted from the GitHub source in the covid19.analytics software package.
Results: According to our model estimates, the rate of infection β = 1 and the rate of removal γ = 0.667 and index R0 = 1.497 were obtained. Because the value of R0 is more than one, it is still an epidemic disease. Given that tfinal~132 days was estimated, we can expect the transmission of this epidemic to stop in Iran after July 3, 2020, provided that existing quarantine measures and patient isolation rates continue as usual. In comparison with the global SIR model, we reached the peak of the infection earlierthan the global model, but in improved and susceptible cases, we performed better than the global model. The graph of recovered and susceptible cases in Iran earlier than the global model cut off themselves.
Conclusion: Forecasts are set to be a useful guide for deciding whether to transfer COVID-19. According to the predictions and estimates made, more attention should be paid to control measures
2. Drosten C, Günther S, Preiser W, Van Der Werf S, Brodt H-R, Becker S, et al. Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. 2003;348(20):1967-76.
3. Zhong L, Mu L, Li J, Wang J, Yin Z, Liu DJIA. Early Prediction of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in the Mainland China Based on Simple Mathematical Model. 2020;8:51761-9.
4. Kwok KO, Tang A, Wei VW, Park WH, Yeoh EK, Riley SJC, et al. Epidemic Models of Contact Tracing: Systematic Review of Transmission Studies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. 2019.
5. Farnoosh GH, Alishiri GHH, Hosseini Zijoud SR, Dorostkar R, AR JF. Understanding the severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on available evidence -A Narrative Review Journal of Military Medicine. 2020;22(1):1-11.
6. National Health Commission's briefing on the pneumonia situation. Released on 23 Feb 2020.
7.http;//www.who.int/healthtopics/coronavirus
8.Ng TW, Turinici G, Danchin AJBID. A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation. 2003;3(1):19.
9. Kermack WO, McKendrick AG. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics--I. 1927. 1991.
10. Nesteruk I. Estimations of the coronavirus epidemic dynamics in South Korea with the use of SIR model. 2020.
11. Tang T, Cao L, Lan C. SIR model for novel coronavirus-infected transmission process and its application. 2020.
12. Tang Z, Li X, Li H. Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model. medRxiv. 2020.
13. Nesteruk I. Statistics-based predictions of coronavirus epidemic spreading in mainland China. 2020.
14. Nesteruk I. Statistics based models for the dynamics of Chernivtsi children disease. 2017(5):26-34.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 6 No 2 (2020) | |
| Section | Original Article(s) | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/jbe.v6i2.4872 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Coronavirus; Epidemic; Covid-19; SIR model; Iran | ||
| Rights and permissions | |
|
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
